{"id":70005,"date":"2024-08-08T16:18:20","date_gmt":"2024-08-08T16:18:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.noemamag.com"},"modified":"2024-10-01T19:14:14","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T19:14:14","slug":"inside-silicon-valleys-grand-ambitions-to-control-our-planets-thermostat","status":"publish","type":"wpm-article","link":"https:\/\/www.noemamag.com\/inside-silicon-valleys-grand-ambitions-to-control-our-planets-thermostat","title":{"rendered":"Inside Silicon Valley&#8217;s Grand Ambitions To Control Our Planet&#8217;s Thermostat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Luke Iseman is unapologetic. If anything, he is emboldened by all the criticism, personal <a href=\"https:\/\/news.ycombinator.com\/item?id=34164826\">attacks <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.citizen.co.za\/news\/opinion\/iseman-scam-damages-work-scientists-global-warming\/\">negative press<\/a> he has received. This article is guilty of feeding into that feedback loop \u2014 of lending some legitimacy to what he\u2019s done. Many of the world\u2019s atmospheric scientists will say this is dangerous, and they\u2019re probably right.<\/p><p>But here we are.<\/p><div>\n    <iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"noa-web-audio-player\"\n            style=\"border: none\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/embed-player.newsoveraudio.com\/v4?key=n0e13g&#038;id=https:\/\/noemamag.com\/inside-silicon-valleys-grand-ambitions-to-control-our-planets-thermostat&#038;bgColor=F3F3F3&#038;color=6D6D6D&#038;progressBgColor=F7F7F7&#038;progressBorderColor=6D6D6D&#038;playColor=F3F3F3&#038;titleColor=383D3D&#038;timeColor=6D6D6D&#038;speedColor=6D6D6D&#038;noaLinkColor=6D6D6D&#038;noaLinkHighlightColor=039BE5\"\n            width=\"100%\" height=\"110px\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><p>In April 2022, Iseman, through his startup, Make Sunsets, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2022\/12\/24\/1066041\/a-startup-says-its-begun-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-in-an-effort-to-tweak-the-climate\/\">began<\/a> doing what so many others have only talked about: It <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-environment\/2023\/01\/09\/make-sunsets-solar-geoengineering-climate\/\">launched<\/a> balloons filled with sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere over Baja California hoping they would burst and start cooling the planet. To help undo some 260 years of warming that resulted from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.historic-uk.com\/HistoryUK\/HistoryofBritain\/Timeline-Industrial-Revolution\/\">greatest technological leap<\/a> in the history of our species.<\/p><p>Tanned from spearfishing and sporting a mohawk, Iseman is at the vanguard of entrepreneurs seeking to put their money where their mouth is. He says he intends to protect from, or even reverse, the damage of climate change through geoengineering, or toying with the planet\u2019s natural systems. And unlike many academic scientists and engineers working on similar problems, he also hopes the venture will be lucrative.&nbsp;<\/p><p>As I called around to sources on this story, many referred to Iseman and his partner as foolish, slipshod and irresponsible cowboys who didn\u2019t need any more press. Climate scientists accuse Make Sunsets of exaggerating its potential impact and attempting to manipulate the atmosphere using shaky science. Iseman has become the geoengineering world\u2019s bogeyman, and that\u2019s something of a change. For decades, the role belonged to the heavy polluters, the fossil fuel industry, which has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2023\/08\/15\/direct-air-capture-carbon-dioxide-removal-occidental-vicki-hollub\/#:%7E:text=Last%20March%2C%20she%20told%20an%20oil%20conference%20that%20direct%20air%20capture%20\">admitted<\/a> to investing in geoengineering schemes in the hope of cooling the planet so they could continue with business as usual.<\/p><p>Now, Silicon Valley is getting in the mix. Iseman has been an inventor, startup founder and director of hardware at the startup incubator Y Combinator. He believes he and other bold and business-minded entrepreneurs are uniquely positioned to solve a crisis that academia and government intervention have utterly failed to address.<\/p><p>\u201cThis is about acting in an emergency,\u201d he told me. \u201cNobody asked me whether I wanted to have runaway climate change. And, you know, we shouldn&#8217;t have to ask permission to try to fix it.\u201d<\/p><p>Given the risks of screwing with the only habitable planet we have, can we afford the potential costs of letting profit-motivated ventures stab at the problem? A rising tide of climate tinkerers might say that given impending global catastrophe and the pathetic response of world leaders, we can\u2019t afford not to.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-filling-a-void\"><strong>Filling A Void<\/strong><\/h2><p>In recent years, private interests have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into figuring out ways to undo the damage caused by emitting some 2.5 trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. The realistic assumption here is that even with drastic emissions reductions we still face a lingering abundance of atmospheric carbon and all the ills it will bring.<\/p><p>\u201cThe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-019-08745-6\">models <\/a>are misleading us,\u201d said Tim Kruger, former director of the Oxford Geoengineering Programme and co-founder of Carbon Gap, a philanthropy-funded non-profit carbon capture think tank. \u201cThey give us a false sense of security that we\u2019re on this glide path down in emissions. We\u2019re completely underestimating the extent of the challenge that we face, and because of that we\u2019re <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/nov\/02\/action-to-protect-against-climate-crisis-woefully-inadequate-un-warns\">woefully unprepared<\/a>.\u201d<\/p><p>Geoengineering is often described as a gutsy last-ditch effort encompassing a suite of ideas and technologies designed to alter some function of the planet\u2019s natural systems with the goal of cooling it. Some interventions are more plausible, others more terrifying.<\/p><p>Weather modification, like seeding clouds with silver iodide to encourage rain, affects only a specific locale and so falls outside the scope of what most experts today consider global geoengineering. Capturing carbon dioxide from the air with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-solutions\/2024\/05\/09\/climeworks-mammoth-carbon-capture\/\">giant filters<\/a>, however, can affect the planet\u2019s atmosphere, and so sits squarely in the realm of geoengineering. But these days, direct-air carbon capture is generally considered less invasive than other methods, like tampering with the ocean\u2019s chemistry to cause its waters to absorb carbon.&nbsp;<\/p><p>What <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/rich-countries-should-not-control-the-worlds-sunlight-experts-warn\/#:~:text=It's%20also%20unclear%20how%20solar,water%20supplies%20in%20another%20area.\">concerns<\/a> experts most is solar radiation management technologies, which include bright ideas like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/future\/article\/20200923-could-geoengineering-save-the-arctic-sea-ice\">spreading reflective material<\/a> across Arctic sea ice to keep it from melting or releasing<a href=\"https:\/\/csl.noaa.gov\/news\/2023\/390_1107.html\"> chemicals<\/a>, as Iseman\u2019s bursting balloons are intended to do, like sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight. It\u2019s sexy and highly controversial, and so gets much of the attention.<\/p><!-- Quote Block Template -->\n\n<figure class=\"quote\">\n\n  <blockquote class=\"quote__container\">\n\n    <div class=\"quote__text\">\n      \u201cNobody asked me whether I wanted to have runaway climate change. And we shouldn&#8217;t have to ask permission to try to fix it.\u201d    <\/div>\n\n          <footer class=\"quote__author\">\u2014\u00a0Luke Iseman<\/footer>\n    \n    <div class=\"quote__social-media\">\n      <div\n        class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_35 a2a_default_style\"\n        data-a2a-url=\"https:\/\/www.noemamag.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wpm-article\/70005\"\n        data-a2a-title='\u201cNobody asked me whether I wanted to have runaway climate change. And we shouldn't have to ask permission to try to fix it.\u201d'\n      >\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_facebook\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_twitter\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_email\"><\/a>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/blockquote>\n<\/figure><p>Global funding for solar geoengineering used to trickle mostly from European governments. Then around 2016, its locus shifted to private, philanthropic and venture capital sources linked to Silicon Valley and Wall Street, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solargeoeng.org\/economic-interests-and-ideologies-behind-solar-geoengineering-research-in-the-united-states\/\">research<\/a> by Kevin Surprise, a lecturer in environmental studies at Mount Holyoke College. The biggest funder today is SilverLining; Open Philanthropy was also a significant funder before exiting the area in August 2024. They source their money from the likes of Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, billionaire Rachel Pritzker, venture capital partner Bill Trenchard and Goldman Sachs\u2019 Steve Strongin.<\/p><p>Like Iseman, these private investment organizations say that their hands were forced; governments have been too slow to act, the academic world is dawdling; the planet is warming and fast approaching tipping points past which we have little hope of return.<\/p><p>\u201cWe think that it\u2019s really important that we have more tools on the table,\u201d said Erika Reinhardt, co-founder of the nonprofit Spark Climate Solutions, which she says is the world\u2019s largest funder of atmospheric methane removal. \u201cWe\u2019re filling a very important gap of enabling this research to get started.\u201d<\/p><p>Like other enterprises, Spark funds early-stage research in academia and a few private startups. It invests with the goal of laying the groundwork, so the world is prepared when \u2014 and if \u2014 things get so bad we have to geoengineer our way out of catastrophe. At this early stage, commercialization isn\u2019t the goal, Reinhardt told me.&nbsp;<\/p><p>\u201cYou don\u2019t necessarily have or want strong commercial incentives. You want to be able to explore lots of different ideas, and you don\u2019t want to be tied to proving that anything works.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p><p>Reinhardt also noted that profit-seeking opens the door to influence. \u201cImagine if we took some forms of corporate interest money, how that might percolate into the type of research that\u2019s happening and what\u2019s expected of the scientists,\u201d she said.<\/p><p>Elsewhere in the geoengineering world, paths to profitability are already here.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-market-for-carbon\"><strong>The Market For Carbon<\/strong><\/h2><p>For two months beginning in September 2023, Canadian startup Planetary Technologies, Inc. released magnesium hydroxide in the shadow of a gas-burning electricity plant in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.planetarytech.com\/projects\/nova-scotia\/\">Tufts Cove, Nova Scotia<\/a>, a hub for marine geoengineering research. In theory, the chemical, added to the plant\u2019s cooling water before it is returned to the bay, will neutralize carbon dioxide dissolved in the water\u2019s surface, creating space for the ocean to absorb more carbon from the atmosphere. Planetary gets its funds from private investors and by selling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.planetarytech.com\/science\/planetarys-oae\/planetarys-mrv\/carbon-credits\/#:~:text=Just%20like%20offsets%2C%20they%20can,credits%20are%20removals%2C%20not%20offsets.\">carbon credits.<\/a><\/p><p>Companies that set goals or operate in states or countries that have set goals for reducing carbon emissions buy credits to offset pollution they otherwise can\u2019t \u2014 or won\u2019t \u2014 address. Purchases are supposed to fund work that reduces greenhouse gas emissions, like reforestation and renewable energy. The market for these voluntary carbon offsets is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2020 to around $250 billion by 2050, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morganstanley.com\/ideas\/carbon-offset-market-growth\">according<\/a> to Morgan Stanley, and that means big payouts for entrepreneurs who can find geoengineering ideas to help solve climate change.<\/p><p>Iseman is trying to do something similar by selling \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/makesunsets.com\/products\/join-the-next-balloon-launch-and-cool-the-planet?srsltid=AfmBOorIiec-Ddz950BfcmJWnLduDZtO_5GknP_dWwsNOlJMHk0ooZpe\">cooling credits<\/a>,\u201d which anyone can buy online to have Make Sunsets eject a gram of sulfur dioxide per credit into the sky on their behalf. However, \u201cThe ocean carbon removal space has been moving much more quickly to commercial activities and commercial rollout, because we live in a world where you can make money out of carbon credits, but not out of cooling credits,\u201d said Lili Fuhr, director of the Fossil Economy Program at the Center for International Environmental Law.<\/p><p>One of Planetary\u2019s largest backers is <a href=\"https:\/\/trellis.net\/article\/shopify-3-lessons-investing-55-million-40-carbon-removal-startups\/\">Shopify<\/a>, a Canadian e-commerce platform worth more than $75 billion. Since 2019, it has invested $55 million in 40 startups focused on removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shopify.com\/news\/shopify-is-all-in-on-carbon-removal-here-s-what-we-did-in-2023\">According<\/a> to Shopify, we \u201cmust innovate our way to a sustainable future\u201d through tech-driven entrepreneurship.&nbsp;<\/p><p>Indeed, private capital has long claimed that <a href=\"https:\/\/mitsloan.mit.edu\/ideas-made-to-matter\/does-regulation-hurt-innovation-study-says-yes\">minimally regulated,<\/a> profit-motivated enterprise is our best means of driving world-saving innovation, but geoengineering critics like Fuhr aren\u2019t lulled into thinking these investments are purely altruistic.<\/p><p>\u201cBig tech companies that have no way to get their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2024\/07\/17\/1095019\/google-amazon-and-the-problem-with-big-techs-climate-claims\/\">emissions<\/a> down are facing a world in which the traditional carbon credits and offsets have been completely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.propublica.org\/article\/the-climate-solution-actually-adding-millions-of-tons-of-co2-into-the-atmosphere\">debunked<\/a>,\u201d she told me. \u201cTheir new attempt is to rely on highly speculative technologies and push startups to build out their business models right now.\u201d<\/p><p>Iseman argues that we now find ourselves at the point where geoengineering may be necessary because governments have failed to innovate away from carbon emissions. That\u2019s partly because governments shy away from risk. They can\u2019t afford to fail, but Iseman can.<\/p><!-- Quote Block Template -->\n\n<figure class=\"quote\">\n\n  <blockquote class=\"quote__container\">\n\n    <div class=\"quote__text\">\n      &#8220;Iseman argues that we now find ourselves at the point where geoengineering may be necessary because governments have failed to innovate away from carbon emissions.&#8221;    <\/div>\n\n    \n    <div class=\"quote__social-media\">\n      <div\n        class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_35 a2a_default_style\"\n        data-a2a-url=\"https:\/\/www.noemamag.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wpm-article\/70005\"\n        data-a2a-title='\"Iseman argues that we now find ourselves at the point where geoengineering may be necessary because governments have failed to innovate away from carbon emissions.\"'\n      >\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_facebook\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_twitter\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_email\"><\/a>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/blockquote>\n<\/figure><p>\u201cGovernments just talk about the climate crisis. They don\u2019t actually fund solutions,\u201d he told me. To be sure, governments are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2024\/04\/04\/biden-harris-administration-announces-historic-20-billion-in-awards-to-expand-access-to-clean-energy-and-climate-solutions-and-lower-energy-costs-for-communities-across-the-nation\/\">funding solutions<\/a>, but even those who disagree with Make Sunsets\u2019 methods agree that whatever is being done is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2022\/07\/05\/1055322\/we-need-to-draw-down-carbon-not-just-stop-emitting-it\/\">not enough<\/a>.<\/p><p>Make Sunsets has already launched close to 80 sulfur-dioxide-filled balloons. Although many climate scientists question its efficacy, the process is cheap and relatively simple. If he lands a federal Small Business Innovation Research grant, Iseman told me his startup could become profitable this year. \u201cIt\u2019s&nbsp; kind of a fun challenge,\u201d he said, \u201cbut more importantly, that means our runway is infinite.\u201d<\/p><p>The idea of Make Sunsets launching balloons in perpetuity might make some experts cringe, but the startup didn\u2019t come out of nowhere.<\/p><p>\u201cThis ecosystem has been brewing for the better part of a decade,\u201d said Mount Holyoke\u2019s Surprise. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stuff.co.nz\/opinion\/130909204\/balloon-goes-up-on-geoengineering-sulfur-scam\">SilverLining,<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/environment\/how-two-weather-balloons-led-mexico-ban-solar-geoengineering-2023-03-27\/\">Harvard\u2019s experts<\/a> and others that have been critical of Iseman\u2019s brash, profit-seeking approach have also invited venture capital, hedge funds and billionaires to invest in their own climate research, he told me. \u201cThey have basically laid the groundwork for [profit] to occur. That\u2019s the next logical step.\u201d<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cowardly-colleges\"><strong>Cowardly Colleges<\/strong><\/h2><p>When a tech startup fails, employees shuttle off to the next gig, founders to the next idea. Investors take a calculated ding, which they write off as losses on their taxes. The world misses out on one more digital distraction. But geoengineering is not a disruptive app promising to turn our consumptive world on its head.\n          <div class=\"eos-subscribe-push\">\n            \n            <a target=\"https:\/\/shop.noemamag.com\/?utm_source=MiddleCTA&utm_medium=website\" href=\"https:\/\/shop.noemamag.com\/?utm_source=MiddleCTA&utm_medium=website\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Read Noema in print.<\/a>\n            \n          <\/div>\n        <\/p><p>When a solar geoengineering startup fails, the consequences may be benign \u2014&nbsp;or billions of people could suffer. The <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/2017EF000735\">consequences of its unfinished<\/a> efforts could cause <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-021-89249-6\">monsoons <\/a>to shift, falter or hit with destructive fury. Fisheries could <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-017-0431-0\">collapse<\/a>. Crops might wither. The world could find itself committed to an expensive and problematic experiment, because, once put in motion, pulling the plug would be disastrous.<\/p><p>Although the oft-stated goal of geoengineering is to return the planet to its pre-industrial temperatures, solar radiation management, in particular, \u201cdoesn\u2019t bring us back to the climate that we had before, it creates a different climate,\u201d Fuhr told me. \u201cPeople compare stratospheric aerosol injection with volcano eruptions. Yes, they\u2019ve cooled the climate in the past. They\u2019ve also brought famines.\u201d<\/p><p>Back in 2010, the author Eli Kintisch <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2010\/05\/29\/127245606\/geoengineering-a-bad-idea-whose-time-has-come\">referred<\/a> to geoengineering as \u201ca bad idea whose time has come.\u201d<\/p><p>That may be true, Kruger says, \u201cbut solar geoengineering is also just not a particularly good idea.\u201d<\/p><p>Making a real impact would require more than one person launching balloons; it would depend on a synchronized global effort with dozens of planes spraying chemicals in the stratosphere for decades or even hundreds of years. We still don\u2019t have a way of knowing for sure whether changes we might witness could be directly attributed to the effort, and all the world\u2019s nations would need to accept the result, even if it results in bizarre or damaging weather.<\/p><p>If we could pull off such international agreement and coordination, we probably wouldn\u2019t be in this predicament.<\/p><p>In 2022, the risks spurred a consortium of scholars to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solargeoeng.org\/non-use-agreement\/\">call<\/a> for an across-the-board, international full stop on the use of solar geoengineering.&nbsp;As of May, more than 500 scholars from 67 countries have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solargeoeng.org\/non-use-agreement\/signatories\/\">signed<\/a> on (as have nearly 5,000 other people). Global organizations like the Convention on Biological Diversity, London Protocol, Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative and the Degrees Initiative (formerly the Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative) have also called for solar geoengineering moratoriums, strict regulation or increased governance.<\/p><p>John Moore, a British glaciologist whose signature is not among the more than 500 dissenters believes we should <a href=\"https:\/\/climateengineering.uchicago.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Glacial-Climate-Intervention_A-Research-Vision.pdf\">at least be exploring<\/a> the potential of more ambitious intervention, but not by blocking out the sun. Moore is decades into tracking the retreat of massive glaciers at the Earth\u2019s poles.<\/p><p>\u201cYou can\u2019t negotiate with the melting point of ice,\u201d he told me. \u201cOnce we\u2019re past 1.5 degrees Celsius, the writing\u2019s on the wall, and that\u2019s pretty much where we are.\u201d Climate scientists have long warned that allowing the global average temperature to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would take us past a climatic point of no return.<\/p><p>Simply put, Moore has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-018-03036-4\">exploring<\/a> the possibility of slowing the rate of glacier melt by redirecting the flow of warm water eating away at ice deep in the ocean by constructing a kind of seawall on the ocean\u2019s floor. In theory, a curtain about 50 miles long and maybe 330 feet high, anchored in front of an ice shelf, could deflect warm water before it reaches the ice, save the glacier and slow sea-level rise. He describes it as geoengineering at a \u201cpinch point.\u201d<\/p><!-- Quote Block Template -->\n\n<figure class=\"quote\">\n\n  <blockquote class=\"quote__container\">\n\n    <div class=\"quote__text\">\n      &#8220;When a solar geoengineering startup fails, the consequences may be benign, but also billions of people could suffer.&#8221;    <\/div>\n\n    \n    <div class=\"quote__social-media\">\n      <div\n        class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_35 a2a_default_style\"\n        data-a2a-url=\"https:\/\/www.noemamag.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wpm-article\/70005\"\n        data-a2a-title='\"When a solar geoengineering startup fails, the consequences may be benign, but also billions of people could suffer.\"'\n      >\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_facebook\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_twitter\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_email\"><\/a>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/blockquote>\n<\/figure><p>Moore has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/06\/magazine\/glacier-engineering-sea-level-rise.html\">onto this idea<\/a> for at least eight years, but he still isn\u2019t satisfied that he understands it well enough. \u201cWe know the model is not perfect, and the key worry is, well, is it missing something that\u2019s really important?\u201d he told me. But to find out, he needs money. Perhaps $10 million. \u201cYou\u2019d be amazed how far a stupid little amount of money could actually go toward answering these key questions that could literally cost [the world] trillions of dollars in a couple of decades\u2019 time.\u201d<\/p><p>So far, though, academia has been reluctant to back geoengineering research. Moore attributes it to \u201ccowardice\u201d over anything controversial. In March, Harvard University <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eenews.net\/articles\/harvard-shuts-down-geoengineering-experiment\/\">shut down<\/a> its solar geoengineering project, SCoPEx, short for \u201cStratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment,\u201d in response to public <a href=\"https:\/\/www.geoengineeringmonitor.org\/2024\/03\/home-scopex-pr\/\">backlash<\/a> championed by Indigenous groups including the S\u00e1mi&nbsp;of Scandinavia.&nbsp;<\/p><p>Private philanthropy is less afraid, Moore told me. For some independent investors, the risk that his idea could go nowhere \u201ckind of doesn&#8217;t matter. Even if there\u2019s a 1% chance it works, you\u2019re still going to get a payoff at the end of the day.\u201d He says that his models show preventing 50 cm, or about 20 inches, of sea-level rise over a century could save coastal countries $2 trillion in potential losses and damages.<\/p><p>Moore isn\u2019t looking to profit off research on manipulating deep sea currents, he told me, and even if he was, he\u2019d have a hard time commercializing the construction of a seawall 1,000 feet below the ocean\u2019s surface. For making a profit by saving the world, there are much better ideas. Glacier brightening, for instance.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-problem-with-patents\"><strong>The Problem With Patents<\/strong><\/h2><p>The nonprofit Bright Ice Initiative is the brainchild of Leslie Field, a Stanford University adjunct professor who began her career by helping Chevron devise ways to get lead out of gasoline. Her nonprofit seeks to combat sea-level rise by covering melting glaciers in tiny reflective balls made from a clay-based material. Field, who is also the founder and managing member of an engineering consulting firm, has been issued more than 60 U.S. patents, some of which cover<a href=\"https:\/\/patents.justia.com\/patent\/10980192\"> methods for cooling wate<\/a>r with sunlight-reflecting materials.<\/p><p>Outside of carbon markets, patents are perhaps the most available means to profit from geoengineering. Patent owners can control how and where their technology is deployed and reap the royalties paid for its use. Many experts worry patenting geoengineering technologies will open the door to Dr. Evil-style villains who could hold the world ransom. But Field argues that the public-facing patent process keeps the field transparent and allows owners to ensure their ideas are used responsibly. She told me she does not intend to profit from her climate-related patents and plans to direct any patent-related profits to Bright Ice.<\/p><p>Bright Ice, she claims, has searched extensively for what they deem environmentally safe reflective materials, and by patenting her methods Field withholds the power to determine who is worthy of following in her footsteps. \u201cI just don&#8217;t want somebody using some toxic material that\u2019s cheaper,\u201d Field says. \u201cThat&#8217;s the big risk that motivated me on [patenting], because you got to be careful on this stuff.\u201d<\/p><p>Today, most geoengineering patents are held by a small number of corporations, but as the field has grown, there has been a surge in new patent applications. The anti-corruption organization Transparency International has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.transparency.org\/en\/publications\/climate-geoengineering-technologies-corruption-integrity-gaps#_ednref21\">termed<\/a> the scramble to claim ownership of this new sector of technology a \u201cpatent land-grab\u201d with dire implications.<\/p><p>Most concerning is the likelihood that certain well-endowed private interests will gobble up \u201cbuilding-block patents,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.transparency.org\/en\/publications\/climate-geoengineering-technologies-corruption-integrity-gaps\">according<\/a> to Transparency International. Such patents include everything used or derived from an invention. Whoever secures these foundational patents first will end up with a tight grip on a slew of future geoengineering technologies.<\/p><p>\u201cThere is a need to enable developers to actually make money from what they\u2019re doing, otherwise, it won\u2019t happen,\u201d Kruger told me. However, \u201cthere is a key element about public trust. If the private sector is involved, and people see a profit motive, it undermines the public\u2019s view on the motivations of people doing things.\u201d<\/p><p>With the profits from concentrated intellectual property rights, mega-patent holders could wield undue influence over geoengineering technologies, leverage legislators to ensure their solutions are greenlighted and funded, and conceal negative results from public scrutiny. For a glimpse of how that might look, consider the American pharmaceutical industry.<\/p><!-- Quote Block Template -->\n\n<figure class=\"quote\">\n\n  <blockquote class=\"quote__container\">\n\n    <div class=\"quote__text\">\n      &#8220;Whoever secures these foundational patents first will end up with a tight grip on a slew of future geoengineering technologies.&#8221;    <\/div>\n\n    \n    <div class=\"quote__social-media\">\n      <div\n        class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_35 a2a_default_style\"\n        data-a2a-url=\"https:\/\/www.noemamag.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wpm-article\/70005\"\n        data-a2a-title='\"Whoever secures these foundational patents first will end up with a tight grip on a slew of future geoengineering technologies.\"'\n      >\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_facebook\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_twitter\"><\/a>\n        <a class=\"a2a_button_email\"><\/a>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/blockquote>\n<\/figure><p>Kruger has been harping on the risks of patenting geoengineering technology since at least 2013, when he and other concerned researchers <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-012-0675-2\">published<\/a> The Oxford Principles to safely guide research. Today, he told me there is a safe and necessary role for the private sector, especially in helping to capture and store carbon, but he worries about geoengineering cowboys piling onto slipshod solar or ocean experiments with little oversight.<\/p><p>As it stands, there is no national or international body and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eenews.net\/articles\/noaa-gets-dire-warning-about-solar-geoengineering\/\">hardly any regulation<\/a> to govern geoengineering. To launch his balloons in California, Iseman needs only to report his launches to the Federal Aviation Administration. But when the public gets wind that someone is experimenting in their backyard, there is often a backlash. \u201cGovernments respond to that,\u201d Kruger told me. In January 2023, for instance, Mexico responded to Make Sunsets\u2019 balloon launches by announcing it would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2023\/1\/18\/23560446\/mexico-ban-solar-geoengineering-make-sunsets-startup-experiments\">ban<\/a> geoengineering within its borders.<\/p><p>Instead of reacting to bad actors with restrictions, Kruger wants governments to facilitate safe research and development by setting the conditions for success. He points to the Covid-19 vaccine: Governments put out the call, and the world\u2019s microbiologists, backed by significant private investment (and<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/380\/bmj-2022-073747\"> $32 billion<\/a> from the US government), quickly delivered, saving untold numbers of lives. After all, it would appear that geoengineering on a massive scale is inevitable \u2014 we exist at the threshold of immutable climatic tipping points, there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/ghgemissions\/global-greenhouse-gas-overview\">zero chance<\/a> that the world\u2019s governments and corporations will stop burning fossil fuels fast enough, and some damage is already <a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/faq\/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change\/\">baked in<\/a> \u2014 shouldn\u2019t we regulate it carefully?<\/p><p>Surprise thinks this is idealistic. In a perfect world, he says, scientists inform policymakers, who install regulations that companies comply with. \u201cI think we can agree that that\u2019s simply not how the real world works.\u201d<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-green-capital-same-as-the-old-capital\"><strong>Green Capital, Same As The Old Capital<\/strong><\/h2><p>When Surprise looked into who was behind solar geoengineering funding today, he didn\u2019t find the fossil fuel industry trying to delay emissions reductions. He found uber-rich, Silicon Valley and Wall St. philanthropists who advertised themselves as wanting to save the world. But if the ends they seek are different from the oil and gas industry, their means are surprisingly similar.<\/p><p>The world has so far responded to climate change with a new green economy: carbon pricing, privatized conservation, renewable energy investment, carbon capture technologies and green consumerism. The idea is that this sustainability minded economic engine, driven by competition for profit, will spur innovation that ripples through society, changing the energy economy and keeping pace with our climate crisis. So far, that hasn\u2019t been the case.<\/p><p>\u201cThere\u2019s recognition that [the green economy] is unlikely to work in the timescales necessary to stave off the worst of the crisis,\u201d Surprise told me. Global gross domestic product could fall by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2021\/06\/impact-climate-change-global-gdp\/#:~:text=The%20largest%20impact%20of%20climate,the%20Swiss%20Re%20Institute%20warns.\">up to 18%<\/a> by 2050 if climate mitigation isn\u2019t successful enough. According to Moore, seven feet of sea-level rise would cost the world $100 billion a year.&nbsp;<\/p><p>Solar geoengineering is often framed as a massive humanitarian effort, but \u201cthere is no grassroots climate justice movement crying out for these technologies,\u201d he said. Instead, his research shows that funding for solar engineering is comprised of a core group including, \u201cat least 11 billionaires or billionaire-founded philanthropies, and a slew of wealthy individuals with direct ties to venture capital firms and billionaire-led hedge funds.\u201d The largest bloc among them are financial firms in the high-tech sector. Surprise argues that this pool of capital, which depends on continued economic growth, can\u2019t stomach the potential future economic losses forecasted for a warming planet. So, it is investing in solar engineering.<\/p><p>\u201cThis is basically a hedge on the bet of the green economy,\u201d he told me. \u201cWe can\u2019t move away from the profit motive. We can\u2019t move away from capitalism. We\u2019ve got to double down. We\u2019ve got to use this as the solution.\u201d<\/p><p>From Surprise\u2019s perspective, geoengineering is part of an effort to buy time for gradual, market-driven climate and energy transitions that will keep the economy cooking. And his concerns echo those of others who stand opposed to solar radiation management and the geoengineering field as a whole: While entrepreneurs invest their time and money into <a href=\"https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2019\/12\/geoengineering-is-no-climate-fix-but-calling-it-a-moral-hazard-could-be-counterproductive\/\">speculative technologies<\/a>, the real climate action of reducing carbon emissions is delayed.<\/p><p class=\"add-symbol\">For his part, Iseman agrees that what we\u2019ve been doing to address climate change isn\u2019t working. That\u2019s why geoengineering is inevitable, he told me. \u201cBy starting to do it, hopefully, I\u2019ve speeded up when this happens at scale by a couple years. Hopefully, people oppose the privatization of this. Hopefully, I can serve as this bogeyman\u201d that pushes governments to step in and say: \u201c\u2018We need to do this as responsible adults, because otherwise these startup guys are going to do it.\u2019\u201d<\/p><p class=\"remove-symbol\"><strong><em>Update: <\/em><\/strong><em>On Oct. 1, 2024, this essay was updated to indicate that Open Philanthropy is no longer a significant funder for solar engineering. It exited doing so in August 2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n          <div class=\"eos-subscribe-push\">\n          \n            <a target=\"https:\/\/shop.noemamag.com\/?utm_source=BottomCTA&utm_medium=website\" href=\"https:\/\/shop.noemamag.com\/?utm_source=BottomCTA&utm_medium=website\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Enjoy the read? Subscribe to get the best of Noema.<\/a>\n            \n          <\/div>\n        ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5396,"featured_media":70010,"template":"","wpm-article-type":[4],"wpm-article-topic":[22,11,23,20],"wpm-article-tag":[],"class_list":["post-70005","wpm-article","type-wpm-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","wpm-article-type-feature","wpm-article-topic-climate-crisis","wpm-article-topic-future-of-capitalism","wpm-article-topic-philosophy-culture","wpm-article-topic-technology-and-the-human"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v25.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Silicon Valley\u2019s Push Into Geoengineering<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Firms are flocking to invest in geoengineering projects. 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